If Donald Trump loses his Supreme Court battle concerning tariffs, the United States might have to return 'tens of billions of dollars' to companies that have paid import fees this year, plus interest, according to a report by The Atlantic. A postponed verdict could lead to even larger refunds, potentially reaching as much as $1 trillion.
The stakes are especially high for both large and small tech companies. A loss for Trump would mean recovering any duties paid on U.S. imports, which companies could otherwise use to bolster their competitiveness. More importantly, it would prevent future tariff shocks that, as economics lecturer Matthew Allen noted in The Conversation, risk damaging 'innovation itself' by disrupting global partnerships and diverse supply chains in 'tech-intensive, IP-led sectors like semiconductors and software.'
Currently, the Supreme Court is evaluating two cases contesting the U.S. president's unilateral authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Defending his 'reciprocal tariffs,' Trump suggested these taxes were essential to addressing what he described as the 'emergency' of enduring trade imbalances that he argued have unfairly enriched other nations while leading the U.S. 'to the brink of catastrophic decline.'
While not everyone predicts a defeat for Trump, prediction markets reduced his victory odds from 50 to 25 percent after last week's oral arguments, as reported by Forbes, due to apparent skepticism from Supreme Court justices.
Support for the argument against Trump's tariffs came from scores of leading economists. A friend of the court brief signed by over 40 economists, public policy researchers, and former government officials contended that Trump's assertions regarding 'sustained trade deficits' and their impact on American manufacturing were misconceived and economically unsound.