United Launch Alliance Revises 2025 Launch Projections Amid Delays

As of last year, United Launch Alliance (ULA) officials had anticipated 2025 to be their most active year, predicting up to 20 mission launches. Tory Bruno, ULA’s CEO, stated that these launches would be evenly distributed between the established Atlas V rocket and its successor, the Vulcan rocket.

However, current expectations have adjusted significantly, with ULA likely concluding 2025 with only six launches—five utilizing Atlas V and just one via the Vulcan rocket. These six launches would mark 2025 as ULA's busiest year since 2022, though it remains notably below initial projections.

ULA has announced its final launch for the current year is scheduled for December 15, aiming to deploy another set of broadband satellites for Amazon's Leo network, previously known as Project Kuiper, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

This year witnessed the Vulcan rocket's only launch on August 12, during a mission backed by the US Space Force. The mission successfully incorporated an experimental military navigation satellite and at least one classified payload into orbit. The mission was Vulcan’s third flight and its first national security mission after Space Force certification.

As one of the Space Force's two certified launch providers beneath the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, ULA plays a crucial role in delivering essential satellites for military operations. Meanwhile, SpaceX, the competing provider, has conducted 151 Falcon 9 rocket launches this year, six of which were for the Space Force's NSSL program.

Concerns over the Vulcan rocket's operational delays have been persistent within the Pentagon. In May 2024, Frank Calvelli, then the assistant secretary of the Air Force for space acquisition, communicated his apprehensions to ULA’s parent corporations, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, highlighting the stalled military satellite capabilities due to these delays.

Despite some progress, challenges persist as the military still awaits the launch of certain satellites aboard the Vulcan rocket, a year-and-a-half since Calvelli’s remarks.

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