Russian officials frequently emphasize the capabilities of the Sarmat missile, with President Vladimir Putin describing it as a “truly unique weapon” intended to deter aggressive rhetoric against Russia. Dmitry Rogozin, former chief of Russia’s space agency, labeled it a “superweapon” following its first successful test flight in 2022.
Despite initial successes, the Sarmat missile program has encountered multiple setbacks, notably highlighted by a disastrous explosion last year that obliterated the missile's testing silo in northern Russia. Designed to replace the dated R-36M2 strategic ICBM fleet constructed in Ukraine, the RS-28, or Satan II, is a fully Russian-produced missile, as declared by the Ministry of Defense.
A recent video of a missile failure does not clearly differentiate whether the failed missile was a Sarmat or the older R-36M2. However, analysts largely suggest it was a Sarmat. The missile silo involved had been renovated following the 2024 destruction of the northern launch site, possibly to facilitate Sarmat tests.
Analyst Etienne Marcuz from the Foundation for Strategic Research highlighted that renovations started in Spring 2025, indicating the urgency of adapting the site for Sarmat tests. If the recent failure involved the Sarmat, Marcuz suggests it could significantly impact Russia's strategic deterrence capabilities, delaying the replacement of the aging R-36M2 missiles whose maintenance has been uncertain since Ukraine ceased these services in 2014.
UN researcher and Russian Nuclear Forces blog editor Podvig concurs, stating that given the imminent retirement of R-36M2 missiles, which have not been tested in over a decade, the probability points towards it being a Sarmat failure. The incident further clouds the reliability of Russia's nuclear forces, questioning both the integrity of old ICBMs and the readiness of new systems hampered by ongoing delays since 2018.