During the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, Kevin Warsh, a former governor of the US Federal Reserve, became a central figure in prediction market discussions on Friday, April 25, 2025. This occurred after President Donald Trump mentioned Warsh as a leading candidate to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Trump's comments, made in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, stirred significant activity on prediction platforms. On Kalshi, Warsh's odds for securing the position soared to 40%, up from approximately 15%. Meanwhile, the chances for National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett briefly fell under 60% from a previous 80%.
When directly questioned on whether Warsh was his top choice, Trump affirmed, 'Yes, I think he is,' which led to a ripple effect through the markets. However, the President also noted that Kevin Hassett remains a strong contender. 'I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both — I think the two Kevins are great,' Trump commented, showing no clear preference.
Despite a recent dip, Hassett had been the clear market favorite for several months. By Friday afternoon, investors had adjusted their expectations based on Trump's remarks, demonstrating the dynamic and responsive nature of prediction markets.