This year, 2025, is on track to be the hottest on record for the UK, according to the Met Office, due to ongoing climate change driving temperatures ever higher. With just over a week remaining, the average air temperature for the UK in 2025 is expected to reach approximately 10.05Ā°C, potentially surpassing the previous record of 10.03Ā°C from 2022. Though a cooler Christmas could influence the final numbers, the Met Office suggests it is likely that 2025 will set a new record.
Persistently high temperatures coupled with low rainfall left the UK susceptible to droughts and wildfires throughout spring and summer, peaking at 35.8Ā°C. While natural year-to-year temperature variation exists, scientists assert that the rapid warming trend is unmistakably driven by human-induced climate change. Prolonged periods of hotter days and nights present growing risks to the elderly and vulnerable, noted Met Office scientist Mike Kendon. He also mentioned potential impacts on agriculture, affecting which crops can be grown in the UK.
By the conclusion of 2025, all of the UK's ten warmest years will have been within the last two decades, with records dating back to the late 1800s. Amy Doherty, a climate scientist at the Met Office, stated, "Anthropogenic climate change is causing the warming in the UK as it's causing the warming across the world." She remarked that more frequent breaking of temperature records will make what was normal 10 or 20 years ago seem comparatively cool in the future.
The Met Office's forecastābased on observed temperatures up to December 21 and assuming typical December weather conditionsāindicates a high likelihood of 2025 becoming the hottest year, marking the UK's sixth new annual temperature record of the century, following 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014, and 2022. Kendon emphasized the unprecedented nature of these changes in observational records dating back to the 19th Century.
The anticipated new record for 2025 stems from extended warmth throughout spring and summer. Although it may feel distant amid the impending winter season, this year's spring and summer were the warmest on UK record. Each month from March to August experienced temperatures more than 2Ā°C above the long-term average spanning 1961 to 1990. Although temperatures didn't hit the 40Ā°C heights of July 2022, multiple heatwaves were noted across much of the nation. The UK Health Security Agency also issued several heat-health alerts over the summer.
Furthermore, spring and summer witnessed low rainfall, particularly spring, which was the UK's sixth driest since 1836. Combined with persistent warmth, this led to drought conditions across large regions, prompting official drought declarations in parts of England, Wales, and eastern Scotland due to factors like significant soil drying.
While recent rainfalls have alleviated drought conditions in many areas, water levels remain below average in some places. Jess Neumann, an associate professor of hydrology at a university, pointed out the substantial water deficits that remain, which affect not only farmers and agriculture but also rivers, aquifers, and drinking water supplies.